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Bank of England to cut Bank Rate to 4.75% tomorrow: Reuters poll

The Bank of England will cut its Bank Rate by a quarter-point tomorrow (Nov 7th) to 4.75%, according to all 72 economists polled by Reuters, but a near-two-thirds majority expect no move in December, suggesting the BoE will stick to a cautious approach.

06 Nov 24 |

Bank of England to cut Bank Rate to 4.75% tomorrow: Reuters poll Image

 

British inflation plunged to a three-year low of 1.7% in September from 2.2%, below the BoE's 2% target.  That leaves room for the Monetary Policy Committee to cut rates next week after pausing in September following a narrow vote to start easing in August.
 
Inflation in Gibraltar is moving in the right direction too, with current levels hovering around the 2.5% mark.
 
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Megan Greene welcomed the recent decline in inflation but downplayed its significance.
Another MPC member, Catherine Mann, said the cooling of price growth has "a long way to go", suggesting a succession of cuts at each meeting may not yet be on the cards.
"Favourable inflation data in the interim between meetings has likely strengthened confidence among committee members that inflation is on a sustainable trajectory to target," said Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec.
"We don't think it will mean that the MPC will call victory on inflation just yet though... there are still some upside risks."
 
All 72 economists in the poll taken by Reuters between at the end of October, expected the BoE to cut the Bank Rate , opens new to 4.75% tomorrow.
Around two-thirds of those polled predicted no change at the following meeting in December.  However, about a third of thse polled expected a further 0.25% basis point cut.
 
 
 
So if things work out favourably, we could see interest rates at 4.5% moving into Christmas and that is likely to have a positive impact on the property market here in Gibraltar.  At Richardsons we are annecdotally seeing swathes of the market - both local FTBs and professionals relocating from the UK - sitting on their hands waiting for mortgages to become more affordable.
 

Will this be the bottom of the interest rates?

 
Probably.  There is no such thing as a 'normal' interest rate, but it is usually above 5%.
 
It is highly unlikely that we will ever see the historically low interest rates we had for a decade prior to 2022.  Interest rates have now returned to what we would deem 'normal'.  There is likely to be a jump in house prices thanks to these lower rates and increased demand for property.
There may still be some unrealistic buyers hoping to see interest rates fall further, but these people will more than likely see the property market march on without them.  Beat the bubble, act now and prosper!

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